03/17/23
Hand-wringing, biting fingernails, nervous ticks…The Fed’s decision on interest rates is coming next week, and it has everyone on edge.
This is precisely the kind of environment that was predicted by retired Pentagon insider Mike Carr, all the way back in January.
He has three moves you can make right now to turn this crisis into a windfall.
Here’s the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!):
The daily chart above looks like a do-or-die situation… because it is.
Frankly, the money being made in the index is from short-term moves (overnight, day, etc.) or from selling options to collect premium.
The bulls and bears are at a standstill, so what’s the move?
With no real trend to speak of, we can at least look at what the indicators tell us.
And here, I’m solely looking at the EMAs, Volume Trend, and the TTM Squeeze Pro.
On the upper chart, the 8, 13, 21, 34, and 200EMA — orange, pink, neon green, blue, and green, respectively) — are essentially shadowing one another bearishly.
In other words, they’re stacked from highest to lowest.
But I’m not jumping to conclusions just yet and here’s why…
For one, it was only a month ago that they were stacked bullishly and we’ve seen the twisting and converging happen since the beginning of the year.
(At least it closed above the 21EMA today…)
On the lower chart, the Volume Trend indicator could be peaking to the downside.
This is a great way of looking at volume from another perspective because it tells you when the directional trend has reached an apex in terms of volume.
Notice that since the October low, volume has drifted sideways in bullish and bearish waves.
But right now, judging by past intervals on the indicator, ES1! may be nearing the recent leg down.
Adding to this, the TTM Squeeze Pro is beginning to round the corner as the histogram is curling higher…
Better yet, it printed a bullish divergence four days ago which I’ve circled.
If I’m a gambling man (which I am), I’d look for a bump to the upside before falling below December’s range.
Either way, I’m waiting on the Fed…
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