Date: 07/20/2023
Author: Mr. X
Whoever convinced Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to run for president should be fired.
The leader of the Sunshine State was unquestionably the GOP’s leading star before the campaign began. He won a crushing re-election victory in the onetime swing state. He won a majority of the Hispanic vote, showing the path forward for the multiracial working-class party Republican consultants have been dreaming of. He has delivered victory after victory for the American Right, seemingly providing the substance in contrast to Donald Trump’s style.
And then the campaign began. Ever since then, Governor DeSantis’s poll numbers have cratered. According to the Monmouth poll, DeSantis enjoyed a +74% rating among Republicans in February – now it is just 47%. Morning Consult has gone from 64% to 39%. Civiqs has gone from 81% to 54%.
DeSantis is now running third in South Carolina and President Donald Trump has to be considered the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination. DeSantis’s campaign is in complete disarray – he fired a staffer who tweeted out a far-right meme, arguably a worse sin than just ignoring it and moving forward. He is firing one-third of his staff. Donors are looking at other candidates including Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, both of whom are more conventional Republicans compared to Trump and DeSantis.
President Trump’s own chances look good at this time, with ’45 defeating ’46 in many general election polls. However, that could be misleading. Numerous must-win swing state GOP parties, including Michigan and Arizona, are practically bankrupt because of fights that have continued since 2020. They are internally divided and major donors are alienated. President Trump is also facing a marathon string of trials before the general election. All of this will rally GOP primary voters to his side, but could cost him in a general election.
RIPPED STRAIGHT FROM THE HEADLINES… NOW MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER
DON’T MISS THIS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL PRESENTATION
Should DeSantis drop out? No. He shouldn’t have run but he still has a path forward if Donald Trump is forced out of contention because of legal issues. Even this is slim though. President Trump’s voting base has decisively turned against DeSantis because of the extraordinarily bitter campaign – which really hasn’t even begun yet. Had he stayed out of the race, he could have been poised to be the savior and the figure of unity if President Trump was sent to jail. As it stands, he is fighting against political oblivion.
The spectacular flameout of DeSantis raises the prospect of the GOP swiftly returning to normal after Donald Trump’s political career. Governor DeSantis seemed to hold the potential for a successful Republican who offered something more than simply rhetorical populism. Populism itself is nothing new for Republicans – Ronald Reagan used his populist credentials to reshape American politics entirely. However, he managed to unite this with impeccable free market credentials. At a time when big business can no longer be considered reliably conservative – or even right-of-center – DeSantis seemed to be the future for the GOP. His war on Disney, ESG, Central Bank Digital Currencies, Big Tech, and other enemies of the American Right won him nationwide praise from conservatives. Now, he is out in the cold, being hammered by Nikki Haley and Mike Pence for his supposedly anti-capitalist policies.
It’s an absurd charge, but one that might stick. GOP donors want to get back to “normal.” President Biden (assuming he is the nominee) is deceptively weak, and they may believe anyone other than DeSantis or Trump can easily win. That probably isn’t true – and more to the point, GOP voters aren’t signing up with this agenda. As long as President Trump remains on the national scene, the split between Republican donors and the grassroots will remain. However, because of the remarkable sense of personal loyalty President Trump inspires, that split may fade relatively quickly when ’45 finally fades from the national scene… assuming he does.
I don’t think President Trump will get elected in 2024. I think the legal obstacles will sink him with swing voters. But only a fool would count him out entirely. He’s got a puncher’s chance and no one should take another Democratic victory in 2024 for granted.
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing
