OH NO: Cramer says no recession


I was beginning to dismiss the danger of a recession…

But then Jim Cramer said that we shouldn’t worry about it, so we are probably SCREWED.

Well, let’s let the “expert” have his say…

Cramer said that recent earnings reports showed that people are still spending and even homebuilders aren’t suffering as much as many would have predicted.

“Those who cling to the notion that we’re about to enter recession must find all of these examples daunting, if not depressing,” he said. “But earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny, even if so many so-called experts tell us otherwise.”

(I love the populist dig at the “so-called experts” as if he’s not a talking head who literally gives his opinions on stocks for a living.)

In truth, this may be one of the rare occasions where I agree with Cramer.

Goldman Sachs recently cut the odds of a recession in the next year to just 20%, down from 25%.

“The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession,” said chief economist Jan Hatzius.

BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer said that “a recession is grossly overstated as a phenomenon today without some massive shock to the system.”

And let’s let the Biden Administration have its say…

“[U.S. economic] growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong – I don’t expect a recession,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

The buried lede in all of this is that American consumers still report woefully small levels of emergency savings and disposable income.

The good news is that the bottom is unlikely to fall out…

The bad news is that if this is as good as it gets, many Americans are in desperate straits.

We have to separate ourselves from the pack.

Keep Moving,

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WORD ON THE STREET 

Trump Facing New Charges As GOP Mulls Impeachment

  • Microsoft Rallies On AI – Microsoft rolled out a new AI subscription service for Microsoft 365. For $30 per month, customers will gain access to generative AI in programs such as Teams and Word. MSFT closed just shy of $360 a share.

 

  • “A TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury Investigation” – Former president Donald Trump told followers on Truth Social that the Department of Justice informed him that he is being targeted by a Grand Jury investigation. The Republican frontrunner called it “horrifying news” and said prosecutor Jack Smith is “deranged.”
    Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy said the congressional GOP has a “duty to get answers” from the DOJ

     

  • Johnson & Johnson Sues White House On Drug Negotiations – You have to believe the Biden Administration welcomes this. Johnson & Johnson is joining Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb in suing the Biden Administration over new Medicare provisions that allow drug prices to be slashed. It argues that the federal government is exceeding its power by compelling the company’s participation in the program.
  • Meta Releases Its Own AI – For Free – Just remember what they say – when something is free, that means YOU are the product. Meta Platforms has built its own ChatGPT rival called Llama 2, which will be free for research and commercial use. “Open source drives innovation because it enables many more developers to build with new technology,” said Mark Zuckerberg. “It also improves safety and security because when software is open, more people can scrutinize it to identify and fix potential issues. I believe it would unlock more progress if the ecosystem were more open, which is why we’re open sourcing Llama 2.



HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • Kissinger Goes To China (Again) – Legendary American statesman Henry Kissinger has gone to China! (All right, history is first time as tragedy, second time as farce). Kissinger met with Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu in an attempt to store friendly communication between the two countries. “Neither the United States nor China can afford to treat the other as an adversary,” said Kissinger (according to the Chinese government). “If the two countries go to war, it will not lead to any meaningful results for the two peoples.”
  • American Soldier Defects To… North Korea? – North Korea has detained an American soldier who crossed the military border without permission. Travis King crossed the border deliberately, laughing as he did so. Well, YOLO.

  • Russia Launches Strikes Against Odesa – Having canceled a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain and suffering from a strike against a crucial bridge, Russia struck back yesterday with attacks launched from the Black Sea. Missiles and drones slammed into the port city of Odesa in what Ukrainian officials said was an attempt to prevent Kyiv’s ability to export grain.

 


CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • Bezos Donates $12 Million To Smithsonian  Amazon founder Jeff Bezos have donated $12 million to the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute facility and the GEO-TREES project. The project is designed to study tropical forests and its impact on carbon capture in an attempt to ameliorate climate change.

 

  • Semiconductor Group Pleads With POTUS Not To Impose Export Controls – The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is lobbying the White House not to impose new export controls on semiconductor shipments to China. “Allowing the industry to have continued access to the China market, the world’s largest commercial market for commodity semiconductors, is important to avoid undermining the positive impact of this effort,” said the SIA. “Repeated steps, however, to impose overly broad, ambiguous, and at times unilateral restrictions risk diminishing the U.S. semiconductor industry’s competitiveness, disrupting supply changes, causing significant market uncertainty and prompting continued escalatory retaliation by China.”

 

  • UN Predicts End Of AIDS By 2030 – The UNAIDS organization argues that if national leaders follow proven techniques, the disease itself could be essentially abolished by the year 2030. “The way is clear,” said UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima. The director noted that several African countries, notably Botswana, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe, have reached the “95-95-95” benchmark, in which the overwhelming majority of those infected know their status, are on treatment, and have responded to that treatment.

New HIV (pictured) infections declined by 57% from 2010 to 2022

 

“AI companions are probably the future of video games in many ways. The increasing atomization of many young people in developed societies, a destructive trend massively accelerated by COVID-19, is only going to get worse in the years ahead.”

“Healthy societies would think of ways to reverse it. However, we are not living in healthy societies. What will happen instead is we will see more attempts to make money off it.”

Remember that video game from a few years ago, Skyrim? Well, now you can have an AI-powered NPC following you around on your virtual adventures. It’s admittedly a bit crude for now. But it represents something transformative.

Mr. X has more.


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