Date: 07/07/2023
Author: Mr. X
It’s the Holy Grail of biomedical research. Alzheimer’s Disease will reap a horrific human and financial tool on the West in the coming years. Consider that the total lifetime cost for a patient with dimensia is more than $400,000. In 2020, the estimated total healthcare cost for Alzheimer’s Disease treatment was $305 billion. It will cost $345 billion this year. This is expected to grow to more than one trillion dollars. More than 6 million Americans are living with Alzheimer’s Disease today. That will rise to nearly 13 million by 2030. Of those aged 45, about 1 in 5 women and 1 in 10 men will get it.
It may be vulgar to talk about, but there’s also an indirect economic cost in the form of lost productivity. As people live longer, people also work longer. Those in specialized trades have skills that can’t be easily transferred. As they are robbed of their minds, they are also robbed of those skills, putting a major burden on the economy and making it hard for aging Western nations to compete globally. In fact, if there is one disease that must be treated effectively if Western healthcare and economic systems are not to face ruin in the coming years, Alzheimer’s is it.
Current federal funding for a cure to Alzheimer’s is more than $3.7 billion. Despite this, progress is slow. Countless billions have been spent, with little to show for it. In fact, just a few months ago, scandal rocked the research community when a neuroscientist contended that the well-known theory that the disease could be caused by amyloid deposits may have been based on doctored research. That raises the unedifying prospect that two decades of research and millions of dollars have been completely wasted.
In 2021, the FDA gave limited approval to Aduhelm, a drug from Biogen. This immediately caused a huge scandal because of contentions that the drug wasn’t very effective, as well as being wildly expensive. Dr. Aaron Kesselheim of Harvard Medical School said it “was probably the worst drug approval decision in recent U.S. history.” It costs about $55,000 a course.
Now, the FDA has made a decision that has far more support. The drug Leqembi, also from Biogen (as well as Japanese drugmaker Elsai), showed that it can significantly slow the progress of the disease in a Phase 3 clinical trial. In a trial with 1,795 patients, the disease was slowed by more than 25% over an 18-month period. This is deeply significant when it comes to maintaining the independence of patients.
RIPPED STRAIGHT FROM THE HEADLINES… NOW MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER
DON’T MISS THIS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL PRESENTATION
Biogen was largely static yesterday and didn’t move in after-hours. Still, it hit a two-year high last month when news of the forthcoming approval hit. It represents a second shot for the company after the Aduhelm debacle. It will also be potentially covered by Medicare.
Long-term, this is something investors may want to consider. Alzheimer’s has been a catastrophe for pharmaceutical companies, with one failed experiment after another. Now, Biogen has its first real success for a market that, unfortunately, is only going to grow in the years ahead. Especially as it is increasingly covered by the government, that’s as close to a sure stream of revenue as one can expect in biotech.
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing
