Date: 08/24/2023
Author: Mr. X
If you’re going to do something, go all-in.
Cross The Rubion – don’t go fishing in it.
And if you aren’t willing to do that, don’t do anything at all.
All this comes to mind when looking at the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin – the colorful and infamous mercenary chief and founder of Russia’s Wagner Group.
He got his start as a petty criminal, a mugger who would rob women in the streets with his friends. He became a caterer after serving time in prison. In fact, Prigozhin’s beginnings were so humble that his first real career move was to start a hot dog stand in St. Petersburg.
He later ended up an aide to Russian president Vladimir Putin and commanded what was unquestionably the most important private military firm in the world. The Wagner Group has been carrying out military operations all over the world, from Syria to Africa.
At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, it had about 1,000 people present. Later, it topped out around 50,000 people – with Wagner (and Prigozhin personally) recruiting convicts to fill the ranks.
The Wagner Group was absolutely crucial to the pivotal battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine… but Prigozhin kept feuding with Russian leadership, notably Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
And then came the coup.
Stunning the world, the Wagner Group marched on Moscow, captured a city in southern Russia without a shot fired and being cheered by crowds. Prigozhin framed his rebellion as a patriotic action, expressing his loyalty to Russia and to the cause and displaying some strategic ambiguity about Vladimir Putin himself. It looked like Prigozhin had at least a fighter’s chance at becoming the de facto leader of the world’s largest country…
And then Wagner stopped. And Prigozhin went to Ukraine. And Putin made peace with the conspirators with what looked like overly generous terms…
Well, until yesterday. A plane with Prigozhin aboard went down yesterday – two months to the day since the abortive march on Moscow.
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but something tells me that the plane crash yesterday wasn’t just an accident. “Prigozhin humiliated Putin with his mutiny,” said former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. “Everyone but Pirgozhin seemed to understand that Putin eventually seek revenge. Looks like he did today.”
The Wagner Group had been extremely active in recent months, occupying Belarus and making their presence known enough that eastern European countries sent troops to the border to keep an eye on them. Prigozhin himself spoke about Wagner’s future in Africa – and that seemed a plausible explanation about why he had been left alive. After all, Russia has been exercising what influence it can in Africa. Russia’s fingerprints were all over the recent coup in Niger, and pro-Russian demonstrators hit the streets there after the West started making threats of intervention. So one could be excused for thinking that Vladimir Putin simply couldn’t afford to lose Prigozhin and put him somewhere where he could still be useful.
Prigozhin himself seemed happy enough with the situation. Just two days ago, he made his first recruitment video for his company since the abortive coup, advertising opportunities in Africa. “We are hiring real strongmen and continuing to fulfill the tasks which were set and which we promised to handle,” he says in the video. He even framed himself as a kind of anti-colonialist hero, saying that his men are making “Africa even more free.” Such positioning shows that he still did have some kind of political ambition.
Well, those are over now. However, valuable Prigozhin once was to the Russian government, Putin couldn’t let someone make such a public challenge to authority and live to tell about it, let alone still have a future in politics. We can also expect he was getting pressure from the military – several people died during the coup and military aircraft were downed. As of this writing, the Wagner Group’s building is lit up like a cross, seemingly confirming the deaths.
Troops from the Wagner Group have reportedly issued a statement. “There’s a lot of talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do,” the statement says. “We can tell you one thing. We are getting started, get ready for us.” Yet this seems like just bluster. here’s a lot of talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do. We can tell you one thing. We are getting started, get ready for us,” they said. Yet they’ve just lost their greatest voice in the councils of the great, and the person who had real grassroots appeal. They are also essentially trapped in Belarus, a foreign country, and hemmed in by enemy powers.
The opportunity Prigozhin had doesn’t come very often. Yet he hesitated. He supposedly was motivated by the ill-treatment of his him by the Russian command, including low levels of ammunition and other supplies that were being sent to the front. However, to cross Putin openly meant the Prigozhin had to win or die. He tried to split the difference. Now he’s dead.
The moral of the story is that one must cross the Rubicon or don’t. The worst move of all is to go fishing in it. A medium is not always happy, and decisive action is better than half-hearted effort which is ultimately destined to fail.
This doesn’t mean being reckless. If we expand this viewpoint to trading, it doesn’t mean to constantly be making bold moves when it comes to trading. It means not to dare greatly without the promise of great reward. There are also certain actions that are inherently risky (options come to mind.) If you aren’t ready for the compromises, better to do nothing and stick with what you know. Prigozhin would be a wealthy man and a potential heir to Putin when this was all over – now he’s gone and his political allies are being removed from power.
Men get few chances for greatness. When one presents itself, decide one way or another and commit totally to the decision. This is the rule in politics, business, and even trading. And if you risk making an enemy, be in a position to finish it or don’t even think about starting it. Don’t fish in the Rubicon – or to put in another way, “You come at the king, you best not miss.”
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing
