03/31/23
It’s Friday morning and we are cranking the DeLorean up to 88 miles per hour.
That’s right folks.
As we head into the weekend, we are going “back to the futures” on the E-mini S&P 500 (ES1!):
I analyzed the above on the 4-hour chart.
The previous analysis concluded with a potential drawdown below the 3800 level and, while that’s still not off the table, I’m thinking the near term probability is low…
That is, of course, unless bad data hits the tape.
For the sake of brevity, I’m aiming higher… after the index pulls back.
The reason is simple: Tuesday was the low of the week.
That said, the S&P 500 could still rip to the upside to cap off the week, but the probabilities aren’t in its favor.
So I’m expecting a flat to down day with 4050 as the target.
Looking to the chart, I’ve drawn a Fibonacci Retracement from peak to trough for a potential short entry…
Ideally, I’d short near the ~4100 level and you can see that as of this writing, ES1! is struggling to overcome the previous level of breakdown.
But all bets are off after 4129.50 at the 78.6% level.
(Past this is too deep of a retracement.)
Now, the upside targets that I see coming for the bulls are 4145.50 and 4168.50…
Ideally, I’d short near the ~4100 level and you can see that as of this writing, ES1! is struggling to overcome the previous level of breakdown.
But all bets are off after 4129.50 at the 78.6% level.
(Past this is too deep of a retracement.)
Now, the upside targets that I see coming for the bulls are 4145.50 and 4168.50…
If you’ve been in the Trade Room with myself and Brian Jones, you know that I use clean levels as price targets almost exclusively.
And these levels are just too clean to leave alone.
Finally, I do see an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and the faint red box marks the neckline…
If that breaks, it needs to do so with conviction.
Today’s PCE data holds the key.
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