China tensions could crush recovery

I’m getting whiplash from following expectations about the Chinese market.

As we discussed yesterday, there was massive optimism about China’s reopening, with foreign investment pouring into the country at levels seen not since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China are in a tailspin.

The United States keeps changing its story about the mysterious “spy balloon” that was shot down over the weekend. Initially, the story was that this had also happened during the Trump Administration.

Now we’re hearing that NORAD missed some of the incursions during that time and that President Donald Trump was supposedly never notified.

Long story short, it means that the GOP has an issue they are going to use against President Joe Biden. And that’s going to matter a lot more because President Biden is about to give his State of the Union address.

If he says something about China, he’ll get plenty of criticism. If he doesn’t say something about China, he’ll get even more.

Meanwhile, China is taking a very combative role towards all of this – all in the midst of a military buildup near Taiwan.

Yesterday, bearish funds on China advanced, with Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) up 4.71% and ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (FXP) up 3.14%.

Asian markets were rising somewhat last night, but the atmosphere is tense.

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COACH’S CORNER

“A somewhat uneventful day of the indices grinding their way down. This rally is fighting for its life right now. However, a sure way to lose is to ignore the technicals and attempt to force your opinion on the market. It loves to prove you wrong and take your cash. As we ended the day SPY had a bullish/neutral structure – treading water but going nowhere fast.

Though the futures are up a bit in the afterhours that can change in an instant. I’m positioned for profits on both sides and you might consider doing the same. I don’t think this rally is sustainable, but the market does what it does. Strong bullish signals on the technology sector today so keep an eye on TQQQ, TECL (see the 78 min chart below), and AAPL, For a short play, it might be worth keeping KO on your radar.”

Cheers,
Chris Hood

WORD ON THE STREET

All Hands On Deck, SOTU Drama, Americans Say They’re Suffering

And So We Rode To War – Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, told employees that it’s all hands on deck when it comes to fighting Microsoft and its lead in AI. In a memo that leaked (and may have been meant to), Pichai said the company would be “enlisting every Googler” to help test Bard, Google’s answer to ChatGPT.
Americans Say They’re Financially Worse Off Since President Biden – According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, 41% of Americans say they are financially worse off since President Joe Biden took office. That’s the highest percentage ever in the history of the poll. Just 16% say they are better off – 42% say they are about the same.

Economic considerations will be at the top of President Biden’s priorities for the State of the Union

New Tax On Buybacks? – President Biden will reportedly call for quadrupling taxes on corporate buybacks. Oil companies, which are reaping record profits, are reportedly a special target of the Biden Administration. However, the Republican House of Representatives is unlikely to go along with any tax increases, no matter who they are for.
BP Posts Record Earnings – You see, this is why the president thinks he can win on this issue. BP joined Shell, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil in posting record profits in 2022. The giant had a net profit of $27.7 billion last year. That’s about nine times the GDP of Liberia.

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HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

Pervez Musharraf Dies – Former Pakistani president and general Pervez Musharraf, who took power after a military coup, has died. Musharraf was a strong American ally in the years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, a decision he freely admits he made because he didn’t want America to target Pakistan. However, he also faced accusations of letting the Taliban operate in Pakistan and hedging his bets that the Taliban would one day regain power in Afghanistan – which of course it did.
Russia Moving In Reinforcements – The Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, says Russia is moving more troops into the occupied region. “They are slowly starting to save [ammunition], getting ready for a full-scale offensive,” he said. British intelligence also confirms the troop movements, though the UK thinks Russia won’t have enough men to act in the short-term.
Earthquakes Hit Taiwan, Buffalo – Just a day after a major earthquake devastated Turkey, a smaller 5.1 earthquake struck Taiwan. A smaller earthquake hit Buffalo, New York, the largest in the area in 40 years. No fatalities or major damage have been reported yet in either quake.

Chief Investment Strategist, Adam O’Dell, says we’re witnessing a new oil boom that is STILL just in its infancy.

Because Adam says there’s a convergence of multiple geopolitical and economic factors coming together in 2023…that will create a brand-new SUPER BULL in oil…

That could send prices higher than any previous peak in history.

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CUTTING EDGE: What‘s Happening In Tech

Pinterest Misses On Revenue – It’s a grim time for online advertising. Pinterest says sales will only increase in the “low single digits” from a year ago. It also fell short on revenue by about $9 million, though it posted a mild earnings beat. The stock declined in after-hours trading.
Binance Says No More Dollar Transfers – And so it begins. Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is suspending dollar withdrawals and deposits beginning tomorrow. Not surprisingly, there was a huge spike in withdrawals after the announcement. However, if you’re an American, you can breathe easy for now – Binance US is not part of this decision. It’s just customers who aren’t based in the US but still trade in American dollars.
So Much For The Paid Accounts – Despite Elon Musk saying that Twitter is moving closer to breaking even, just 180,000 people are paying for “Twitter Blue” as of mid-January. That’s less than 0.2% of active monthly users. The scoop comes from the tech news website The Information.

Americans reportedly make up 62% of Twitter Blue subscribers

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

“The best situation for consumers would be a price war between Google, Microsoft, Baidu, and others.”

Microsoft and Google are about to go to war over AI… and let’s not forget what China has in store. What’s the best-case situation for investors… and for consumers? Mr. X breaks it down.

THE COMING AI WAR

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China tensions could crush recovery

WORD ON THE STREET

All Hands On Deck, SOTU Drama, Americans Say They’re Suffering

HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

Earthquakes Hit Taiwan, Buffalo – Just a day after a major earthquake devastated Turkey, a smaller 5.1 earthquake struck Taiwan. A smaller earthquake hit Buffalo, New York, the largest in the area in 40 years. No fatalities or major damage have been reported yet in either quake.

CUTTING EDGE: What‘s Happening In Tech

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

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