Date: 08/25/2023
Author: Mr. X
President Donald Trump’s mug shot will instantly become the most famous mug shot in the world, and possibly in world history. With a showman’s sense for the dramatic, President Trump tweeted for the first time in about two years yesterday. It may have simply been a onetime pitch for fundraising – Donald Trump’s critics sometimes accuse him of running for president simply to pay for his criminal defense. Trump is still bound to post on Truth Social. However, even this onetime tweet won praise from Elon Musk, owner of X. “Next level,” he posted.
Last March, Musk also posted that Trump would win the election if he was arrested. Well, that has come and gone. Polls show President Trump in striking distance of President Joe Biden, though the incumbent is winning in most polls. More importantly, a solid majority of voters, at least according to some data, has decisively ruled out ever voting for President Trump. Many in the Republican Party feel that the next election is theirs to win – if the party just nominates someone other than Donald Trump. However, President Trump simply grows more popular within the GOP primary, as rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis begin to fade.
The case itself is probably going to go against President Trump, unless he can present some blockbuster evidence that shows he had good reason to believe there were problems with the election. Yet the case itself will probably not be the main focus. President Trump is trying to get the trial delayed until after the primaries (at least), something that may find its way into federal court. If that does not occur, President Trump is likely to say that the entire process constitutes “election interference.”
Independent voters have shown little willingness to give President Trump another chance. No poll shows him with less than 56% unfavorable rating. A recent YouGov poll gives President Biden a six point lead over Trump.
Yet President Biden remains unpopular, and his push to take credit for “Bidenomics” is not benefitting him in the polls. Vice President Kamala Harris is even more unpopular, leading some to speculate about both of them being replaced with California Governor Gavin Newsom. Of course, there’s nothing to suggest Kamala Harris would stand aside in such an eventuality, and Michelle Obama has thus far said she would be unwilling to run.
What seems inevitable is the GOP’s worse nightmare. The 2024 election becomes a relitigation, perhaps quite literally of the 2020 election. President Trump and President Biden go head to head, but President Biden probably does not even debate. Trump is mired in court battles and fights against overwhelmingly negative press, court defeats, and GOP defections. Yet Biden remains vulnerable – especially if the war in Ukraine does not progress or if the economy tanks. Thus, the Democrats will remain nervous.
At this point, we can call Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee. Candidates this well-known simply don’t collapse in the primaries at this point. He is definitely the underdog in 2024 – but President Biden is weak enough that he has a puncher’s chance. That’s enough for Democrats to stay worried – especially as the stakes are so much higher than they were even in 2020.
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing
