Date: 08/07/2023
Author: Mr. X
There is nothing more tiresome than people trying to meme “World War III” into a thing. It was tried during the Cold War. It was tried during the War on Terrorism. And now, people are trying it with Russia, as the United States and Russia are closer to war than any time since the end of the Cold War.
It’s not a world war, not even close. However, it’s something close to a mini world war. There’s no area of the world that isn’t a potential theater for global conflict. There’s at least three right now – and American territory is not exempt. As the war in Ukraine stagnates, Russia is expanding the battlefield.
First there is Niger. A recent coup removed the democratically elected government. The West reacted strongly, with France particularly putting itself at the head of the opposition. In the immediate aftermath, protests against France championing Russia received wide circulation in the global media. The West seemed to avoid the need to lead boots on the ground when the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) promised intervention.
However, the 15 member states now appear divided. A deadline for restoring President Mohamed Bazoum, who claims he is a “hostage,” has come and went. That puts pressure on the United States. The ousted president called for American intervention in the Washington Post:
In our hour of need, I call on the U.S. government and the entire international community to help us restore our constitutional order. Fighting for our shared values, including democratic pluralism and respect for the rule of law, is the only way to make sustainable progress against poverty and terrorism. The Nigerien people will never forget your support at this pivotal moment in our history.
However, the new leadership in Niger has its own ally. General Salifou Mody reportedly made contact with Wagner in a recent visit to Mali and asked for help. Several sources, according to the AP, have confirmed the meeting. Mali and Burkina Faso have also expressed opposition to military intervention by other African states and may defend Niger. This would fit with Yevgeny Prigozhin’s comments to his men that though their war in Ukraine is over, Africa beckoned.
Russia is also seeking confrontation with the United States in Syria. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Syria, Iran, and Russia are all cooperating to push the USA out of the country. Late last month, Russians used flares to damage American drones that cost about $30 million each. This came after a situation in March when a Russian jet downed a drone by clipping it with its wing. “We call upon the Russian leadership to make sure that they issue guidance to their troops to abide by the laws of the sky and make sure that they cease this irresponsible behavior,” said American Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Finally, Russia is working with China to show that it can still project power even to American borders. About 11 Russian and Chinese vessels approached Alaska, while remaining in international waters. They approached the Aleutian Islands. Four American destroyers confronted them.
China said: “Naval vessels of the two countries have recently conducted joint maritime patrols in relevant waters in the western and northern Pacific Ocean. This action is not targeted at any third party and has nothing to do with the current international and regional situation.” In contrast, Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan said there was a new era of authoritarian aggression and called for a more forceful American response.
Russia’s objective is to expand the battleground and overstretch American commitments. The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive to (so far) recapture large amounts of territory has some in NATO expressing frustration. If the United States is forced to confront Russia in multiple areas, it seems the thinking is that it will need to cut back in Ukraine. Of course, there is thus far no major pressure within Washington for restricting aid to Ukraine. If Russia is trying to force America to back down, it may end up prompting yet more military spending – good news for defense contractors, private intelligence companies, and weapons manufacturers.
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing
