05/10/2022
“I wouldn’t take it.”
This is what Warren Buffet recently said, proposing what he would do if offered all the Bitcoin in the world… for the price of $25.
I don’t know if I’d pass that up, personally, but here’s my take…
Bitcoin is headed down much further than the crypto zealots think.
(Source: tenor.com)
Hey, I’m just looking at the chart… and it’s not a statement I make happily.
But when I heard some of the outlandish price targets last year — the ones articulated before it printed its top — I couldn’t help but think that it was coming down soon…
I can’t stand price targets, but at the time, I forecasted $25k.
Now? I’m aiming lower.
Let’s get a glimpse of this warlock:
We’re going to fish eye Bitcoin today and look at it on the weekly chart.
But before we do, I want to be clear about something…
Although I may sound bearish in the near term, it should be noted that this is an asset that has an annualized return of over 200%.
And with those types of returns, you can expect some volatility…
A longer term analysis makes more sense here for my lower target.
More on that below…
Now, I’m calling for more downside, but the one and two Standard Deviation Channel tells me we’ll likely see a reaction pump from the current price.
This is despite the lower chart indicators (RSI, OBV, MACD) all pushing lower…
I’ve drawn a Fibonacci Retracement from the beginning of the most recent leg up in Bitcoin, waiting for the 61.8% mark. That printed this week in the highlighted white box.
I’ve made mention of this before, but my ideal entry in the Fib Pocket between the 50-61.8% range is less ideal when an asset goes parabolic.
In fact, I rarely touch them afterwards and will wait for the 78.6% mark, if I take an entry at all…
The Volume Profile and red arrow on the right show the gap in the price action all the way down to the 78.6% level.
The Fib Extension to the downside gives me even more reason to lean on my renewed target and, given Bitcoin’s propensity for wild volatility, I believe the bottom is further down than expected…
~$12,000.
Sounds crazy to think that the mother of all cryptos could gain a prediction of $100,000 to $300,000, only to fall to the $12k area, right?
Absolutely.
I like trading hype, but take a look at your favorite speculative stocks on a weekly chart and you’ll see what I mean…
Unfortunately, this could mean pain for a lot of digital asset portfolios.
I hope I’m wrong.
Keep moving,
(Disclosure: I am long BTCUSD.)
This material is not an offering, recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed, and is to be used for informational purposes only. Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment. Due to the timing of information presented, investment performance may be adjusted after the publication of this report. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.
