Have you tried looking at it this way?

Intraday volatility over the last month has been a bit insane…

The good news is that this is typically a sign of a reversal or, at the very least, a rally.

How long that rally lasts, I haven’t a clue.

But if we check out the “lettered” pattern I’ve mentioned before, we might have an idea…

I chose to use the 12-minute timeframe because, with the settings from Chris Hood’s TRADE COMMAND, it has an almost 57% win rate and a profit factor of 1.3+.

And frankly, that’s pretty damn good considering the number of trades that get spit out on a lower period that I can out-point in terms of profitability…

Dig it.

I’ve broken this chart into 4-5 phases marked A-D2.

I say D1 and D2 because this setup smells like a traditional ABCD/Whiplash pattern that I use.

A is the sharp rise. B is the pullback. C is the area between these two that needs to be broken through with strength, which we saw yesterday…

D? Well, D is the target (potentially two).

I’m taking this idea based off the pattern, of course, but I want to illustrate the importance of the Fibonacci Retracement levels, particularly, the 61.8% mark.

Each of the white arrows in the background denotes this important level.

Zoom in and check out phases A and B…

The first retracement set is for the initial rise in phase A. The turnaround in phase B begins right at the 61.8% level.

The second retracement set is for phase B on the pullback. Look a little higher where I’ve drawn in the white arrow and circled the 61.8% area once again.

From peak to trough, a reasonable entry is when an asset pulls up above the 61.8% level and finds Support…

And where did SPX find Support? Bingo.

Now, to take an aerial view (sort of), I drew in a Fibonacci Extension and you can see the faint dotted gray line in the background from the bottom, to the top of phase A, and then to the bottom of phase B.

Those Fibonacci levels you see to the far right are derived from this, giving us the target area.

Get all that?

I know. It’s a lot.

But one thing that sticks out is the lack of any true directional bias.

Yes, in the near term, the chart looks bullish as we’ve climbed out of the hole. However, we’re poking around an area of supply (red block) that could be the end of the move, hence D2 (red arrow)… The green blocks are areas of demand.

Chris Hood’s Alpha Waves tool is signaling that momentum is beginning to fade… at least, on the 12-minute chart.

Note the lack of congruence in colors on the last column of dots… bright red, dark red, bright green.

There’s not much in terms of a divergence looking at the composite Stochastic either (multi-colored line).

Momentum may fade, but it’s worth noting that the end of the trading session, there was a mighty large spike in BUY volume towards the close.

This could be shorts covering their tail, although that’s not certain…

With the intraday volatility in the indices which are now trading like penny stocks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the SPX test the trendline (blue) and climb back towards the target.

I’m looking for ~3800, but below the trendline, I’m short.

While it’s been both fun and tough to trade SPX, I say watch the overall direction and your risk management…

Or join Chris Hood and I soon and let the market pay for your trades…

I’ll get to that soon.