Drowning in the Weight of Your Opinions


Date: 1/13/2023
Author: Chris Hood



More economic data and more, potentially irrational, exuberance.

We saw quite a rally yesterday.

After a gap-up and quick flush, the market went into nearly a full day’s bull run. It was the classic gap-and-go pattern.

There were some massive pullbacks intraday but, the direction was definitely up.

Many traders doubtlessly got taken out by the algo stop-hunting early in the morning.

I don’t have high hopes for a market recovery this year.

More than likely we’ll see more downside.

I don’t think this highly publicized inflationary decline of 0.1% doesn’t mean that prices are going down. They just aren’t going up as fast.

And a good portion of the decline is due to energy and stabilizing food prices.

The Core CPI which includes everything except energy and food actually went up.

Inflation is still with us.

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Despite my own bearishness, and the dire warnings issued by economists and fund managers every day, you have to ignore these assumptions when you put on your trades.

Remember, we’re not investing.

We’re playing the game of short-term options for some quick gains.

Each day when you open your brokerage platform, take a moment to clear your mind.

Forget your assumptions about the market.

Turn off the financial news channels.

Take a deep breath and relax.

The only things you should be focused on are your indicators, charts, and trading plan for the day.

Sure the S&P 500 may collapse another 20% from its current low, but when (and if) that happens is truly unknown and unknowable.

We are in a bear market, and if your general outlook is bearish then you might only be looking for short plays.

Do that and you miss out on the gains from the massive rallies like those we’ve just had.

Remember that your mind can play tricks on you.

If you have a strong bias in one direction or the other, you’ll find reasons to ignore indicators that go against your opinions.

When you’re hunting bears, your eager eyes see them everywhere.

…even as they’re when they’re charging at you with their horns.

So offload your mental baggage each day and look at the market with fresh eyes. Then watch your results improve.


Chris Hood


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