Dawn Report – September 15, 2022


To strike or not to strike?

As of this writing, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 19 said thousands of its workers had rejected a contract that was negotiated with the railroads.

There are plenty more unions involved in these negotiations… and any one of them could throw a wrench into ongoing discussions.

Needless to say the Biden Administration is already doing everything it can to avoid this strike. Such an occurrence could be an economic deathblow considering the bad news on inflation from earlier this week.

The invention in 1956 of the standard shipping container led to a boom in international trade… but it also makes the system much more vulnerable to stoppages.

In fact, according to the Association of American Railroads, a strike could cost $2 billion a day.

Now, railroads have been cutting staff since the pandemic, so this isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Furthermore, a strike isn’t a sure thing. The aforementioned union said that though it was rejecting the agreement with the National Carriers’ Conference Committee, it was holding off a strike while other unions negotiate.

An extremely complicated game of chicken is developing…

And some are already preparing for the worst. Amtrak has already suspended long haul routes because of the possibility of a strike.

This uncertainty reminds me of our overall economic situation.

The fact is, we don’t know with absolute certainty what the Fed is going to do. At this point, a three-quarters of a point interest rate hike looks likely, but a full point can’t be ruled out.

What we can do is use the technical tools in our kit to play the probabilities, maximize our gains, and limit our potential losses.

Below, Chris Hood, who may have the most breathtaking arsenal of weapons for the trading wars of today, breaks down what the inflation figures really mean.

Even in this time of uncertainty and volatility, remember that Rogue Investing can serve as your rock and foundation.

Keep Moving,

 


Any strategy that makes you money consistently is worthwhile.

Though many new traders believe that trading is primarily about indicators and tools, Chris maintains that it is at least 95% about emotional control.

This is especially relevant in this bearish, choppy market which has made the trading world extremely difficult.

Learn some pro tips to come back from your losses and stay in the game.


WORD ON THE STREET 

Patagonia Founder Gives It All Up To Fight Climate Change

  • “Merge” Underway For ETH – If all goes well, Ethereum will have fully  switched to a Proof of Stake model instead of a Proof of Work model by the time you are reading this. The second-most valuable cryptocurrency and most utilized network for apps will now operate in a way that uses far less energy and should (in theory) allow apps to operate more quickly. ETH gained about 2.5% in the hours before the transition took place.
  • This Is Some Bruce Wayne Level Stuff Here – Yvon Chouinard and his family have given up their entire ownership stake in the wildly successful apparel line Patagonia, a company reportedly worth about $3 billion. In a letter explaining his family’s decision, he said that neither selling the company and donating the money nor taking the company public were satisfactory. Instead, the company will be controlled by two entities. One is a trust that will focus on climate change issues (the Patagonia Purpose Trust) and the other is a group of nonprofit organizations (the Holdfast Collective.)

Yvon Chouinard’s love of the outdoors goes back decades. Here, he’s teaching ice climbing all the way back in 1975
  • Amtrak Cancels All Long Distance Trains – President Joe Biden is well known for his love of Amtrak, so he might want to pay attention to this. As a potentially ruinous national railway strike is just days away, Amtrak has canceled all long-distance trains beginning today. Just to show how far-reaching this strike could be, Amtrak is doing this even though the current negotiations do not involve Amtrak or the Amtrak workforce.

  • California Sues Amazon On Antitrust Grounds – California state Attorney General Rob Bonta announced the Golden State is suing Amazon.com because it has allegedly led to higher prices. “With other e-commerce platforms unable to compete on price, consumers turn to Amazon as a one-stop shop for all their purchases,” he said. He argued this market power allows the company to make “increasingly untenable demands” on sellers, which is “costing consumers more at checkout across California.”

 


This “tool” earned over $400k in 12 months.
Video uncovers the winning tactics that handed one trader an average $7,300 in profit every week using just shy of $12,000 in capital.

HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • New War Just Dropped – The ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke down, with about 100 troops killed total in artillery duels. Turkey is backing its traditional ally Azerbaijan, while Russia, which is bound to protect Armenia, is struggling to cobble together a ceasefire.
  • Wagner PMC Head Filmed Recruiting At Prisons  Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Kremlin-affiliated Private Military Company Wagner, has been filmed making a pitch to Russian prisoners to fight in Russia’s “Special Military Operation.” “Nobody goes back behind bars,” offered Prigozhin. “If you serve six months, you are free.” The prisoners were also told that looting, alcohol, drug consumption, and even fraternization with the local population are banned. Well, seems reasonable, right? Of course, it comes with a catch. “If you arrive in Ukraine and decide it’s not for you, we execute you.” There’s always the fine print.

  • Swedish Right Claims Victory – One of the most historically left-wing states will now have a right-of-center government. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson resigned after right-wingers pulled ahead in the vote count. The once marginalized Sweden Democrats, slammed as “far-right” by many commentators, is now the second-largest party in the country and the largest party on the right. “It’s time to make Sweden good again,” said party leader Jimmie Akesson. Well, he certainly has more modest ambitions than another right-wing populist I know about.

CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • Tesla Sued Over Self-Driving Predictions – “Mr. Simpson, this is the most blatant case of false advertising since my suit against the film ‘The Neverending Story.'” It’s basically like that. A Tesla owner in San Francisco has filed suit against the company, claiming that it is marketing Autopilot and Full Self-Driving in a misleading fashion. “Contrary to Tesla’s repeated promises that it would have a fully self-driving car within months or a year, Tesla has never been remotely close to achieving that goal,” says the filing.
  • President Biden Goes Off-Script At EV Event – While visiting the Detroit Auto Show in an effort to promote electric vehicles, the Commander-in-Chief instead made a beeline for a gas-powered orange Corvette. “Get out of the way, everybody,” he proclaimed. “This thing flies!” He drove an electric Cadillac Lyriq for a short time, calling it a “beautiful car.” Of course, he then immediately undermined the message by saying, “But I love the Corvette!” Don’t we all.

  • Google Slashes R&D Projects – Peter Thiel argued in his book Zero to One that monopolies have a bright spot. They can invest capital in transformative projects because they don’t need to worry as much about competition. However, in the current market downturn and facing major regulatory pressure, even Google is cutting back. “Area 120,” the company’s in-house R&D division, is reportedly being cut in half as Google strives for efficiency and tightens its belt.


Back To Basics

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

“There was definitely a shift in market sentiment. It’s been quite some time since I’ve seen a single day’s candle on SPY take us back so far. The day’s quick reversal put us back to where we were on September 7th.”

The markets weren’t ready for that inflation report… and that means market sentiment has changed. When there’s a shift this big, we have to shift with it and ride the wave.

Chris Hood breaks down what it all means and how you can profit.


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