Dawn Report – November 19, 2021

I    P    O

Three little letters that lead otherwise reasonable people to lose their minds.

And these days they are treated like movie premieres, with pomp, PR, and a whole lot of pumping to try get prices up big on day one.

In fact, investors often treat IPOs the way studio producers treat opening weekend, with proclamations of glory or doom based on those opening numbers.

Dr. Kent Moors had a different perspective when it came to the big time IPO with Rivian (RIVN) not too long ago – and it dropped more than 15%.

Yet you can’t deny the appeal of a blockbuster IPO – Sweetgreen (SG) was the talk of the market, almost doubling in price on day one.

However, as “Mr. X” points out, there was a far less successful IPO that took place yesterday… even though the company was backed by investing legend Warren Buffett.

If even Mr. Buffett gets it wrong, what hope is there for the rest of us? Well, there’s a simple answer to that… check your premise.

The fact is, stocks aren’t movies. You don’t know how the story ends after one day. And the “BLOCKBUSTER GAINS!!!” that headlines scream about are far less impressive than the more sober returns retail traders can usually grab.

Unless you can absolutely guarantee getting in at the opening price, it might be best to give it some time.

Of course, there’s an exception to every rule… such as when you see something that isn’t just a new brand but is a “revolutionary business,” not just a new way to doing an existing business.

At least that’s what Mr. X says… and hey, he was right about Roblox (RBLX).

Seriously, check out what he said all the way back in November 2020… and then check out what he has to say today.

Let’s close out the week strong.

Keep moving,

The Christmas Rally… it’s something all investors know about…or at least think they do.

There’s a specific way you can position yourself to make the most cash by exploiting the season’s hottest sectors. See how to play the long game… with confidence. Perhaps most importantly, learn the ways to avoid giving back your gains come spring… and why the “common sense” boilerplate strategies will get you nowhere.

This is one you don’t want to miss


Sweetgreen Surge, Apple Cars… and House Filibusters?

  • You Want A Salad With That?  Sweetgreen (SG) dominated the market yesterday, almost doubling in price day one on the NYSE. The upscale, “healthy eating” fast(ish) food restaurant defied doomsayers who said the company isn’t profitable yet. Besides, it recently bought a company that uses robots to serve food… look at it like a tech company.

  • House Republican Delays Spending Bill – Technically, the filibuster only exists in the Senate, but give House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) points for creativity. He used his position to give a six hour speech decrying the Democrats-only social spending bill. Of course, as you might expect, he eventually ran out of things to berate in the “Democrats’ Socialist Spending Scam” and meandered through various topics like his inability to afford a Tesla, getting a COVID-19 booster shot, and whether to punish a House member for posting anime that allegedly threatened another member.

  • Where We’re Going We Don’t Need Steering Wheels – As regular as the tide come the rumors of the Apple Car. However, new reports suggest the company may try to have an “autonomous car” on the road by 2025. How confident is Apple in its self-driving system? The company is reportedly kicking around designs that don’t even have a steering wheel.

  • Microsoft Leans On Activision Blizzard The video game company known for Call of Duty faces its toughest war yet – against Microsoft. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) has managed to fend off hostile media and even an employee walkout over sexual harassment allegations, but now Microsoft (MSFT), which owns XBox, says it is re-evaluating its relationship with the company. Sony (SONY) is also putting the pressure on. ATVI was down almost 2.4%.


Did you miss Options Coach Chris Hood’s landmark event? Chris does a deep dive into his cornerstone strategy that has been paying him every week for years

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HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • Venezuela Going Capitalist? – Well, in vice anyway. A dozen casinos are opening in the home of the “Bolivarian Revolution.” After the economy has contracted by an astonishing 80% within just seven years, it’s safe to say that this is mostly meant for wealthy foreigners, not suffering citizens. What’s left to gamble?.

  • ♫ Highway To The Danger Zooooooooooone ♫ – Facing threats of a possible Chinese invasion, Taiwan has shown off its 64 F-16V fighter jets, fourth-generation warplanes that can track 20 targets at a time. Of course, China possesses fifth-generation warplanes, but then again so does America. Barring an American commitment to the island’s defense, the USA can always land that next arms sale.

  • DOJ Indicts Two Iranians Who Posed As Proud Boys – Not sure which political party will make hay out of this… probably both. The Department of Justice has arrested two Iranian nationals who pretended to be members of the “Proud Boys” group. The duo allegedly sent a fake video to Republican officials showing “ballot tampering” and also sent emails threatening Democrats with violence… basically appealing to the fears of both sides. The DOJ also alleges the Iranians obtained confidential voter information from at least one state.

CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • Walmart Begins Drone Service – In partnership with Zipline, Walmart (WMT) has begun a commercial drone delivery service in Pea Ridge, Arkansas. While the company promises deliveries for “thousands of products,” for now it is limited to healthcare items like over-the-counter medicine and bandages.

  • VR-Robotics Company Accuses Meta Of Copying Its Design – HaptX has developed a haptic glove, a futuristic looking device that allows users to feel things like texture and pressure in virtual reality. The problem is that Facebook, I mean Meta, has just rolled out its own haptic glove… and it looks pretty similar. HaptX said Meta’s design appears to be “substantively identical to HaptX’s patented technology.

  • Space Tax Proposed – There is truly no escape. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) has proposed the “Securing Protections Against Carbon Emissions (SPACE) Tax Act” that would impose a fee on space tourism. (Can we pass a law against laws with cutesy nicknames?) And yes, before you ask, Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin has already hired a lobbyist to work against it.

I knew the Reds would come for it


“The best way to approach IPOs may simply be to ignore them altogether. Give it time. Wait to see the way things shake out. Unless you can practically guarantee you will be able to buy at the opening price, there’s no reason to succumb to what is essentially a glorified public relations event.”

Sweetgreen (SG) had a monster IPO. On the other side of the world, Warren Buffett struck out on an IPO in India… or did he? Mr. X. dismisses the “Day One” mania surrounding IPOs and provides some tips on how to win in the long run.





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