“We are in a gas crisis. Gas is a scarce commodity from now on.”
That was Robert Habeck, German Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Action.
Russia cut off natural gas shipments to Europe in response to EU sanctions and weapons shipments to Ukraine. What could the world be facing?
To quote Habeck again, nothing less than a “Lehman Brothers effect.”
“The whole market is in danger of collapsing at some point,” he said.
Yet markets rallied yesterday following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s vow for an “unconditional” war on inflation.
“We have a labor market that’s sort of unsustainably hot and we’re very far from our inflation target,” he said.
“Sort of?” Seriously?
Look, I’ve long been contending here that we should remember what Hayek said about the “pretense of knowledge.” You can’t manage a market from the top-down.
Color me skeptical on the Fed’s ability to find the perfect economic balance…
However, for better or worse, a ruling system can determine winners and losers in a market. For that reason, we always need to pay attention to the political signals being sent.
Mr. X, who predicted the Russian incursion into Ukraine, writes today on the remarkable bounce given to gun stocks by yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling.
And who knows what the Court has in store for us today… or the market.
Stay focused. For us, news items are just new variables that need to be integrated into our system.
Trust the charts, stay connected, and never forget that we have your back.
It’s been a tough week for all of us after the death of our friend and colleague Dr. Kent Moors. Let’s remember that none of us have all the time we think we do.
Make every day count
Keep Moving,
In this week’s Hood Talk, Chris looks at the market through three time frames – the daily, monthly, and weekly charts.
This isn’t just guesswork, but an analysis using tools that hedge funds are willing to pay millions of dollars to use.
WORD ON THE STREET
Shall Not Infringe, Political Intrigue, Powell Gets Grilled
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New Powers Rising In Both Parties – If President Donald Trump wants to run again in 2024, he may have a rougher road than he imagines. A new poll in New Hampshire shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now beating ’45. Democrats too are exploring other options as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings near historic lows. California Governor Gavin Newsom’s star is rising so much that there’s pushback from within the Democratic National Committee against any challengers. President Biden has already said he will definitely be running again in 2024.
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Gun Stocks Boom After Supreme Court Decision – It was a big day for SWBI, POWW, and other firearms stocks after the United States Supreme Court ruled a New York gun control law was unconstitutional. Writing for the 6-3 majority, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote, “We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need.
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Up In Smoke – Vapers of the world, unite. The FDA ordered Juul, Inc. to stop selling all vape devices and cartridges, essentially shutting down the business. “Today’s action is further progress on the FDA’s committment to ensuring that all e-cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system products currently marketed to consumers meet our public health standards,” said FDA Commissioner Robert Califf. Juul plans to appeal. Well, I would hope so.
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Up In Smoke – Vapers of the world, unite. The FDA ordered Juul, Inc. to stop selling all vape devices and cartridges, essentially shutting down the business. “Today’s action is further progress on the FDA’s committment to ensuring that all e-cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system products currently marketed to consumers meet our public health standards,” said FDA Commissioner Robert Califf. Juul plans to appeal. Well, I would hope so.
HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics
- European CEOs See Recession On The Way – Bosch CEO Stefan Hartung said there’s a “big recession in the making” due to tensions with Russia. Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding said Europe’s fate depends heavily on the USA. “If the Fed gets it badly wrong and catapults the US straight from boom to bust (unlikely but not fully impossible),” he wrote, “such a recession could last well into next year..
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Gates: China Could Bring Taiwan To Its Knees – Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the likelihood of a Chinese invasion is very low, but that doesn’t mean Taiwan shouldn’t be worried. He argued that China could “bring enormous pressure on Taiwan without ever firing a shot through cyber and through economic measures.” Gates said such efforts could bring the island “to its knees” and thus willing to negotiate unfavorable terms.
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Global “Monkeypox” Emergency? – The World Health Organization is reportedly debating whether monkeypox should be declared an “extraordinary event” requiring a global response. “After COVID, WHO does not want to be the last to declare monkeypox an emergency,” said the vice president at the Center for Global Development.
CUTTING EDGE: What‘s Happening In Tech
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Netflix Lays Off Another 300 – How the mighty have fallen. Once invincible Netflix continues to struggle, laying off about 300 workers worldwide in response to slowing revenue. Earlier this year, the company had to announce it had actually lost subscribers for the first time.
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Here We Go Again On Lockdowns In China… – China reported 143 COVID cases, an increase from the day before. That wouldn’t be a big deal except China continues to respond with a “zero COVID” strategy, which often involves lockdowns that can strangle global supply chains. Tesla TecnoKing Elon Musk blamed such problems for why his new factories were essentially operating as “money furnaces.” The world can’t afford another lockdown.
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New Variant Dodges Vaccinations, Previous Infections – Are we in the clear? Well… it doesn’t look like it. The new BA.5 subvariant of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 is now the dominant strain in the United States. A new study from Harvard Medical School shows that it dodges antibodies created both from vaccinations and from previous infections
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
“The best case scenario for the gun companies are laws and media coverage that drive people to buy from fear. At the same time, there can’t be any restrictions that could actually cut into sales figures. That appears to be what we are facing.
A pro-gun decision from the Supreme Court. Antigun legislation from Congress. Is there an opportunity created from this clash?
Mr. X thinks so, and looks at the stocks that popped in response to the political bombshell in DC.
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