Dawn Report – July 27, 2022


Optimism? OPTIMISM?

There’s been a lot of doomerism from financial analysts and politicians, but that Narrative has been disrupted going into this morning.

Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were up sharply in after-hours yesterday after reporting earnings… and we might see a bit of a tech rally today.

Microsoft’s cost-cutting measures, rather than a precursor to reduced earnings, instead look like a brilliant move to ensure future profitability.

Remember what I said… it’s all about what these companies are projecting for the future.

It’s hard to deny what’s happening when you look at Microsoft. Consider all these negatives:

  • Earnings per share below expectations
  • Revenue below expectations
  • Slowest revenue growth since 2020

But Microsoft told investors that “we continue to expect double digit revenue and operating income growth in constant currency and U.S. dollars.” Furthermore, the company is working to extend the lifespan of its equipment, a prudent move in this climate.

Alphabet has a similar situation. It met revenue expectations, but disappointed on earnings, and missed on YouTube advertising revenue, Google Cloud revenue, and revenue growth generally.

What’s amazing here is that the company didn’t give an optimistic outlook for this year, saying that the strong dollar will hurt results next quarter and bemoaning, in CFO Ruth Porat’s words, “uncertainty in the global economic environment.”

Still, it was up almost 5% in extended trading. Uncertainty works both ways after all.

Obviously, all eyes are on what the Fed will do Wednesday. But look for some profit taking here in tech.

We’ll know more tomorrow about whether this is Big Tech’s last stand or the beginning of a turnaround.

 

Keep Moving,

 


Any strategy that makes you money consistently is worthwhile.

Though many new traders believe that trading is primarily about indicators and tools, Chris maintains that it is at least 95% about emotional control.

This is especially relevant in this bearish, choppy market which has made the trading world extremely difficult.

Learn some pro tips to come back from your losses and stay in the game.


WORD ON THE STREET 

Tech Recovery, DOJ Going After ’45, Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Project

  • Bull Market Hopes After-Hours – GOOGL, MSFT, META (formerly FB), RBLX, TWTR, and other tech companies were all up after-hours. MSFT issued optimistic guidance about earnings for the rest of the year and the cheery outlook has the rest of the sector booming one day before the Fed announces its next interest rate hike.
  • Utopia Or Dystopia? – With President Joe Biden being forced to legitimize Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by meeting with him, the Saudi leader now has more confidence to move forward with his Neom supercity plan. Neom will supposedly turn a huge area (about the size of Belgium) into a high-tech Mecca. (Yes, pun intended). It will also feature The Line, a “linear city” with nature-filled walkable communities. However, advertising for the supercity met a hostile reaction on social media, with many accusing Saudi Arabia of violating human rights and building a supercity while ignoring inequality.

Saudi Arabia’s wild ambitions are becoming more plausible thanks to high oil prices
  • DOJ Open To Prosecuting Trump – Touting what he claims is “the most wide ranging investigation in its history,” Attorney General Merrick Garland refused to rule out charging former president Donald Trump. “We intend to hold everyone, anyone who was criminally responsible for the events surrounding January 6, for any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another, accountable,” he said. “That’s what we do. We don’t pay any attention to other issues with respect to that.” Donald Trump continues to lead most polls of Republicans for the nomination in 2024, creating the possibility of a divisive political fight if the DOJ goes forward with a prosecution.

  • Zuckerberg Not Down With Downtime – Mark Zuckerberg passionately defended his vision for Meta Platforms, including plans to cut some workers, in a recent company wide Q&A meeting. One employee made the mistake of asking whether extra vacation time introduced during COVID-19 would continue in 2023. A visibly annoyed Zuckerberg said, “Given my tone in the rest of the Q&A, you can probably imagine what my reaction to this is.” I guess there really is such a thing as a dumb question.

 


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HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • Chinese Smartphone Sales Plummet – Quarterly smartphone sales are down more than 14% year-over-year in China, a catastrophic showing for an absolutely critical industry. Quarterly sales were actually significantly worse than when the pandemic first hit China in 2020. In fact, quarterly sales were the worst since the fourth quarter of 2012.
  • UK Conservative Debate Called Off After Host Faints – A second bruising debate between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss for leadership of the Conservative Party (and the post of Prime Minister) ended before it began when host Kate McCann passed out. On medical advice, the debate was called off. Polls currently show Liz Truss leading Rishi Sunak among Conservative voters, as both candidates move right to win the support of the grassroots.

  • Mexican President Unloads On United States – President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico sharply criticized his opponents, referring to them as traitors. “They are defending foreign oil companies, foreign electricity companies,” he said of those who support foreign-owned, “clean” energy companies in preference to state-owned electricity. “They are traitors to the country!” He also blasted those trying to stop a planned train route for environmental reasons, accusing them of working for the American government.

CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • Monkeypox Hits High In United States – The United States has the dubious honor of having almost the highest monkeypox caseload in the world, with only Spain exceeding it. There are currently about 3,600 cases, raising the danger of the disease spreading uncontrolled on a larger scale. Meanwhile, New York City is responding to the crisis… by asking the World Health Organization to rename the disease because it is stigmatizing.
  • “We’ll Build Our Own Space Station! With Blackjack!” – Russian space authority Roscosmos has declared that after fulfilling its current obligations, Russia will stop participating in the International Space Station. The exit will take place after 2024. “I think that by this time we will start putting together a Russian orbital station,” said head Yury Borisov.

  • Quest 2 Getting Price Increase – Meta Platforms will be launching a successor to its Quest 2 virtual reality headset this year. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t trying to get all the value it can out of the existing model. Quest 2 is getting a price raise of $100, meaning the 128-GB and 256-GB versions will cost $399.99 and $499.99 retail price beginning August 1.


If you’re looking to buy, do it in the next few days

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION

 

As I write this, the most bullish sectors are XLE (energy), XLP (consumer staples) and XLV (healthcare).

I should qualify this a bit…

Tech is dominating the headlines today, but Corey identifies a possible high-risk, high-reward biotech play. Is it time to act now? Perhaps it is best to wait for the buy signals…

Corey breaks it all down here. Don’t miss this one.

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