Dawn Report – January 10, 2022

We want something more.

Look, there’s a vast industry dedicated to “measuring the national mood” or trying to figure out the General Will. Democracy, after all, is supposed to be about what the people want.

Yet figuring out what people actually want via polls, election results, or even television ratings or movie returns can be really difficult.

You can often find some kind of evidence to support whatever pre-existing view you are going in with. So I tend to be skeptical when someone points to a key piece of data and then draws some sweeping conclusion.

Still, how can you ignore this?

An astonishing 4.5 million Americans quit or changed their jobs in November.

They are calling it “The Great Resignation.”

Some employees think they have a leg up and are flexing their muscle. Heck, we even had a walkout at a (unionized!) Starbucks last week.

The low wage workers that the agricultural industry relies on are also being squeezed. Political divisions on the Hill make it unlikely that we’ll see any kind of an immigration deal before the midterm elections.

Perhaps more importantly, even if you opened the doors to millions of workers… everyone is sick.

One economist predicted as many as five million Americans could skip work this week due to sickness.

The omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, plus the ordinary flu season, have Americans checking out.

What are the ramifications of this? A lot of the things that we thought were “temporary” may be here to stay.

These include zero-touch checkout mechanisms, faster automation when it comes to replacing human workers, supply chain disruptions, digital currencies from central banks, and more reliance on working from home. There will also be increased dependence on the technologies that make all this possible.

“The New Normal” is already here. It’s not just changed economic circumstances, but the expectations ordinary people have about what they are entitled to.

Of course, if you are a trader, you understand you are entitled to nothing. You are only as good as your record… and you have to work to improve it every single day.

If you’re already subscribed to “Before The Bell,” you’re getting a new stock tip each trading day for free. I’m crunching the numbers on each of these… but you can’t lose the forest for the trees.

The entire trading environment is changing… and we have to be quick enough (and liquid enough) to change with it in order to take advantage.

Keep moving,

Another great episode packed full of critical information for options traders of all levels. This week Chris discusses the prediction of the Santa Rally and how the market was telling us to get ready for some time. He keys in on the power market analysis using the put-call ratio, futures, and $TICK charts to determine likely reversal points. According to Chris this is a critical time to make money as things will get more difficult as the year progresses. In his words, “making money isn’t difficult, but keeping it is.”

Click Here for Episode 53: “Options Trading – Profitable Mistakes, PC Ratio, and Following Signals”


New Variant Drops, Americans Quit, Supply Chain Snares

  • Take This Job And Shove It – With “The Great Resignation” well underway, small businesses (especially restaurants) are struggling to adapt. One million of the 4.5 million who quit in November worked for restaurants or hotels. Workers in these sectors are quitting at twice the rate of others.

  • New Variant Dropped – A scientist in Cyprus claims to have found the latest strain of COVID-19 – one that combines the delta and omicron variants. Let’s have a big welcome for “deltacron,” the newest rationale for why you won’t be allowed to do anything. It’s still unknown whether the new stain is more dangerous or contagious – Perhaps one of the reasons why President Biden is having a hard time is because, fairly or unfairly, many thought the Biden Administration would bring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic. That no longer seems like a possibility. Politico reported sources from both outside and inside the Administration say that “there’s little new left for the federal government to do but hold on and hope the worst is over soon.”

  • LA Port Busier Than Ever – The Port of Los Angeles processed 10.7 million 20 foot containers in 2021, setting a new record. However, there are still problems with the supply chain – both Los Angeles and Long Beach delayed (for the seventh time) a tax on companies whose containers linger too long near ports. Though there reportedly has been progress, there is still a backup at these and other ports, with authorities scrambling to get goods unloaded as quickly as possible.

  • Facebook Flop – Oh, sorry, “Meta.” John Pinette, director of communications for Meta (FB), has left the company. The departure comes at a critical time – the company is still reeling from the leak of internal communications in “The Facebook Files” that showed FB was aware of the emotional harm some of its content could cause. Now, the company must face a massive vacuum in dealing with this and other controversies at a time when lawmakers are taking aim.


HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • Serbia May Bail On Rio Deal – Because of large-scale protests, Serbia may annul its contracts with Rio Tinto (RIO), blocking a $2.4 billion lithium project. Environmentalist groups have been leading the protests – one of the ironies as lithium becomes critically important to the “clean energy” project of electric vehicles.

  • Italy Secures Merck Antivirals – Next week, Italy is getting 40,000 doses of an antiviral from Merck (MRK) designed to fight COVID-19. That’s just the beginning – the country is obtaining 200,000 doses of Pfizer’s (PFE) antiviral drug next month. As vaccines are largely failing to prevent transmission, countries now are shifting to treatments.

  • China Tests ALL Residents In Port After Omicron – No matter what the cost, no matter how large the disruption, China is sticking to its zero-tolerance strategy on COVID-19. After about 20 people tested positive for COVID-19 in the port of Tianjin, the government is testing all 14 million residents. The Chinese government is intensifying its efforts against the disease as the Winter Olympics near.

CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • NASA Scores Success With New Space Telescope – The new James Webb Space Telescope has successfully completed its deployment. Now that it has deployed its distinctive “golden mirror” that will help capture images from deepest space, scientists will be able to test some of our ideas about the beginning of the universe – including the Big Bang itself.

  • Disney Needs A Few Brave TikTokers – TikTok is the most visited website in the world, even beating Google. Now, Disney (DIS), a company whose stock has struggled over the last year, is looking to hire a few influencers to help market on TikTok. Job requirements include “an affinity for the Disney Brand including a passion for being in the Disney parks.” If you’ve got any kids, maybe this is the time to tell them to get a job.

  • Lockdown Leads To Less Lightning? – In spring 2020, lockdowns led to the use of fewer aerosols. An unexpected result – reduced human activity also led to a drop in lightning. Of course, this implies that as the economy recovers and activity increases, there will be more lightning. So rejoice if the heavens look determined to kill us all – that just means the economy is booming.

I think someone’s trying to tell us something


“The Chinese would advance significant loans to the host’s central government and major national oil companies and then use the indebtedness to extract other objectives. Now, Beijing could care less where the producing companies would sell its oil abroad. Instead, China came to control the proceeds from those sales in payment of the loans.”

How does China economically infiltrate other markets? No one can be deluded that Beijing is doing anything other than looking out for number one…



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