Dawn Report – August 4, 2022

Is it a bear recovery… or a renewed bull market?

There are some strong technical signals that we might be in the midst of the next big upswing. “Mr. X” breaks it all down below.

Some of the companies that have been suffering most in 2022 staged a remarkable recovery. I’m talking:

Moderna (MRNA) gaining almost 16%.
Cloudflare (NET) gaining almost 10%.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. gaining 9.25%.

There are several factors driving this.

Despite persistent COVID-19 in some areas, restrictions are practically nonexistent. There will be no more shutdowns. That’s a major cause of uncertainty that’s been simply removed.

Congress and the Biden Administration have finally made progress on passing a climate change bill that would provide massive funding to clean energy. There’s also more than $50 billion heading towards semiconductors.

The jobs market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve is trying to control inflation. Consumers still have enough to spend.

Of course, it’s not all good news. Walmart (WMT) was down as it announced layoffs.

The biggest problems, as always, are political.

1. Will the Democrats’ spending bill be held up in the Senate?
2. Will the Federal Reserve crush the stock market recovery in its determination to stop inflation?
3. Will geopolitical tensions in China and Azerbaijan spiral into war and distort markets as much as the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Just as yesterday I said to take it stock by stock, take it day by day now. We’re in a fast changing environment. Don’t try to apply a grand narrative to the whole thing.

Stick with the technical signals, stay connected, and you’ll do fine. We’re in this together.


Keep Moving,


Any strategy that makes you money consistently is worthwhile.

Though many new traders believe that trading is primarily about indicators and tools, Chris maintains that it is at least 95% about emotional control.

This is especially relevant in this bearish, choppy market which has made the trading world extremely difficult.

Learn some pro tips to come back from your losses and stay in the game.


Masters Wins In AZ, S&P 500 Hits Highest Level Since June, Tragic Crash

  • S&P 500 Up 1.6% – Hitting the highest figure since June, the S&P 500 is up big as the tech sector gained. New data also showed that supply chain issues were easing throughout the American economy. The NASDAQ composite, a far more tech-heavy index, was up 2.6%.
  • Zero To Two – Venture capitalist Peter Thiel’s political bets paid off in the primaries earlier this week. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Blake Masters of Arizona both triumphed convincingly in their respective contests. Both also enjoyed former president Donald Trump’s endorsement, something ’45 will clearly tout as he tries to maintain his authority over the GOP.

Fair to say Peter Thiel’s support for Masters is no shocker
  • WMT Puts On A Brave Face – A bad sign for retail as Walmart (WMT) slashed its forecast and announced layoffs. “We are doing some restructuring to make sure we’re aligned,” explained company spokeswoman Anne Hatfield. The company said the layoffs would “better position the company for a strong future.” WMT declined both during the trading day and after-hours.

  • Rep. Jackie Walorski, Staff Killed In Crash – Indiana Republican Jackie Walorski and three others, including two on her staff, were killed in an a car accident. The Elkhart County Sheriff’s Office reported that it was a direct head-on collusion, with everyone involved in both cars dead at the scene.


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HOT SPOTS: What’s Going on in Geopolitics

  • Azerbaijan Kills Two Armenians In Renewed Conflict – Azerbaijani forces killed at least two Armenians in operations under the name “Revenge” in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan is coming off a successful war with Armenia not long ago and may be seeking to consolidate full control of the area while Armenia’s traditional protector Russia is distracted. A Russian peacekeeping force is in the region but it’s unclear what Russia is willing to do to end the conflict, if anything.
  • Volcano Erupts In Iceland – If you’re thinking about taking a trip to Iceland or Europe, you might want to recheck the schedule. A volcano near Reykjavik erupted near the mountain Fagradalsfjall. A regulatory agency said infrastructure was safe but warned against poisonous gases near the area. The last time this happened, the eruption lasted six months.

  • All Your Base Are Belong To Us – Fresh off being mogged by Nancy Pelosi, China is responding. The Chinese military has released a map showing that it intends to all but surround Taiwan during military exercises in coming days. China is also likely to test Taiwan’s airspace with warplanes and possibly a missile launch.

CUTTING EDGE: Whats Happening In Tech

  • Crypto Legislation Could Boost – Or Doom – The Whole Industry – The crypto industry has never been particularly fond of federal regulation, but it seems that it is on the way. Senators Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and John Boozman (R-AK) introduced a bill that would regulate both BTC and ETH under the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. However, this could actually be a win for crypto – others are suggesting it be regulated under the Securities and Exchange Commission, perceived as having a more suspicious take on cryptocurrency.
  • San Diego Declares Emergency Over Monkeypox – The state of California and the city of San Diego have both declared a medical emergency over a monkeypox outbreak. Local officials suspect more than 50 cases so far in the area. The announcement could have an impact on biotech stocks, as it grants officials more authority to move swiftly to secure vaccine supplies.

  • An Answer To A Question No One Asked – Do you want a Starbucks NFT? No? Too bad, you’re getting one anyway. The market may have crashed but Starbucks (SBUX) is moving forward with a “web3 based rewards program” that will give customers exclusive content and coffee-themed NFTs. Still, perhaps Starbucks might be the first company to pull something like this off successfully – the Mobile Order & Pay program has been a major success, constituting an increasing source of sales revenue.

Of course, the company still has to deal with the more than 200 branches that are attempting to unionize



“The question now is whether tech and growth stocks, having lost so much ground, are in position to recover. There are some signs to think we are at the beginning of another bull market.”

After warnings of recession and endless doomerism, tech stocks are booming. Have we hit bottom, or is this a fools’ rally?

Mr. X argues there are grounds for optimism… assuming the Fed doesn’t smash the recovery.