Date: 01/11/2022
Author: Mr. X
What If Russia… Wins?
Consider the following things.
- The Ghost of Kyiv wasn’t real. (And it wasn’t Sam Hyde).
- The defenders of Snake Island may have cursed at a Russian ship in defiance – but then they surrendered. They didn’t die to the last man.
- Russia didn’t run out of ammunition and missiles six months ago, or three months ago, or earlier this month. It won’t run out this month either.
These are just some of the propaganda stories that we’ve been fed about the Russian effort in Ukraine. I’ve even fallen for one story, notably about Putin supposedly calling in a retired, obese general to fight in Ukraine. In reality, the man was not a general, was not in Ukraine, and was a retired border official. He may have been an absolute unit, but that was the only part of this propaganda story that was true.
None of this should be taken to say that Russia’s propaganda should be believed. Much of Russia’s propaganda is laughable. It’s casualty figures are extremely underreported. It denied having any intensions to invade Ukraine – until it invaded Ukraine.
The drive on Kyiv put the lie to the propaganda line that Russia simply wanted to protect the Donetsk and Luhank People’s Republics. The embarrassing retreat from the capital was an unexpected defeat, not some strategic masterstroke that actually allowed Russia to capture territory. Russia consistently, laughably, and in the face of all evidence, keeps saying that everything is going to plan.
However, we must be conscious that we in the West are also being fed propaganda. We may have a greater opportunity to seek out the truth than some Russians, but not by much. It takes effort. This is natural in war. “The truth is so precious,” Winston Churchill supposedly said, “that she should always be protected by a bodyguard of lies.”
Since General Sergei Surovikin, aka “General Armageddon,” took over, Russian forces have been performing much better in the “Special Military Operation.” One key to this was Russia’s willingness to swallow what was a political humiliation – the cession of Kherson. I expected Russia to fight to the end for Kherson, the one regional capital that Russia had retained. Yet Russian forces retreated across the Dnieper, blew the bridges, and dug in.
The world than saw crowds of jubilant Ukrainians celebrating their liberation, giving the lie to the idea that everyone in the city wanted to be Russian. Some of the people left behind actually did – and Ukrainian internal security troops have reaped a heavy toll against those they regard as “traitors.”
At the time, this was seen as a major admission of Russian weakness. It was. Yet on a deeper level, it showed some fundamental strength within the supposedly shaky Russian political system. It showed that Russia could afford a political embarrassment if it meant that it could create a better military situation. This worked. By all admissions, Russian forces did not flee in terror from Kherson, but retreated in good order and dug in on the other side of the river with most (though not all) of their heavy equipment. Ukrainian generals grumbled that they weren’t able to destroy the Russian groupings, which are now in a strong position, albeit at the end of a long logistics chain.
Russia has now won a clear victory in the city of Soledar. The city, best known for its salt mines, is reportedly under the control of Russian forces. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are either trapped or have retreated in confusion.
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What is interesting about this is that, technically, it’s not the Russian military that has achieved this victory. It’s members of the Wagner paramilitary corporation who are the only ones fighting in the area. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a onetime chief, has visited the front lines to see his men, some of whom are convicts who were given the choice of staying in prison or going to the front. He is emphasizing the 100% Wagner make up of the operation – another sign that he is building his own independent power base. The Wagner troops, known as “The Orchestra,” are now the true face of the Z “Special Military Operation.” Prigozhin is arguably more powerful than Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. One reason why is that he is more truthful and blunt – he never underestimates Ukrainian resistance, he doesn’t lie about the toughness and skill of the defenders, and he admits the heavy casualties. The Russian government’s “All is going according to plan” narratives look ridiculous in contrast.
Everyone knows what is on deck. The next target is Bakhmut, a strategic and heavily defended city. Holding Bakhmut will be difficult for Ukraine following tactical gains by Russian troops in the surrounding area. With superior artillery placement, Russia could inflict devastating losses on the Ukrainian units that remain. How severe those losses actually are is a subject for furious debate. Ukraine has been very effective in concealing its casualties. Meanwhile, aside from the reservists killed in a recent Ukrainian rocket attack (a strike that slew anywhere from 63 to about 400 Russian soldiers), the casualties on the Russian side are mostly from Wagner. They won’t be counted among “official” Russian causalities – it’s a cynical play, but an effective one.
Russia continues to send troops to Belarus, creating the possibility of a second front. A new attack from the north is unlikely, but Ukraine can’t ignore it. Therefore, it must pull troops from the east to protect the capital. Some Russian forces remain entrenched in the south to guard against a Ukrainian offensive which would have to cross the Dnieper. Ukraine claims that Russia is preparing to gather another 500,000 conscripts. Russia has denied this – but then again, it was denying it was going to invade Ukraine until the very moment that the attack began.
Ukraine’s main strategy now is to hold for time. There’s a new sense of urgency among its allies. The United States will be training Ukrainian soldiers on American soil to use the Patriot air defense systems that Washington is sending. A $3 billion defense package could be just the beginning of a new push, including shipments of Bradleys and Strykers. Canada is upping its own aid to Ukraine. Poland has built a new unit, the “1st Infantry Division of the Polish Legions,” which Belarus’s state media called “an aggressive policy and unneighborly disposition on Poland’s part.” The Republican takeover of the House of Representatives may slow but will not stop aid to Ukraine, nor can it do anything about the advanced weapons systems that are already on the way.
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The most likely situation is that Russia is going to try to hold the land after taking Bakhmut and the remainder of the Donetsk People’s Republic. If there is a winter offensive, as many are suggesting, it will come from that direction and be limited in scope. The threat to Kyiv via Belarus is likely a distraction – something that won’t be launched unless Moscow’s situation seems truly desperate.
There is a wildcard in all this – and that is the situation in China. I’ve repeatedly argued that authoritarian regimes, when confronted by domestic crisis, turn to foreign policy. China has successfully built a strong nationalist movement among young people who circulate its talking points among social media. The government is, if anything, more restrained than the population. That’s where you want to be if you are a ruler.
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As part of the effort to dominate the semiconductors sector, the United States is trying to move semiconductor production back to the homeland. Yet this is not something that can be done overnight. China is also facing ruinous demographic issues, not to mention an economy that is stumbling badly.
However, China does have one key advantage – the United States is distracted and Western powers have had their own arsenals hollowed out by propping up Ukraine. If China was going to make a move on Taiwan, probably with a combination of a blockade, political action within Taipei, and an amphibious landing, now is the time. China also has a basis of support among Taiwanese businessmen who are being hurt by American sanctions on China. China’s government has built its legitimacy on delivering economic growth. With that faltering, and with the Communist Party having had to performing an embarrassing U-turn on “Zero COVID,” foreign policy is the only place left if China doesn’t want to appear weak.
There is a significant risk that China may make an aggressive move against Taiwan in the short-term. That would give Russia a massive advantage, as the United States and its allies would face a military and diplomatic catastrophe on both fronts. Europe and the United Kingdom are already heading for recession. The Ukrainian defense has inspired the world, but a Ukrainian victory is by no means a sure thing. In fact, after the fall of Soledar, the most dangerous period is about to begin.
We may read in our papers that Russia is on the brink to collapse – but President Putin and his followers don’t see it that way. Don’t be fooled – even in a free country, we are propagandized too.
Mr. X is an investment analyst working in the Washington DC area who specializes in the intersection of business and public policy. After fifteen years working in politics, he writes on a classified basis for RogueInvesting.com to bring you news on what those with power are debating, planning, and doing.
